GCC Summit Fails To Provide A Breakthrough

Hopes for resolution of the Gulf crisis festering for a year and half were shattered after the Qatari Emir decided to not attend the 39th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Riyadh. Qatar was represented by its’ Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Sultan bin Saad al-Muraikhi. It acquires significance because King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, the GCC chair for the year 2018, had sent a personal letter of invitation to the Qatari Emir raising hopes that the summit could find a way forward to resolve the impasse. The GCC summit is an important annual event that reviews the economic and security situation in the region and takes decision on policy priorities. It has been the most successful economic bloc in the region, and has played a significant role in fostering economic growth of the member countries. Since the Gulf crisis broke out in July 2017, doubts have been raised about the future of the GCC, and the two summit meetings since have failed to find any common ground between the feuding parties. The 2018 summit was also a short affair that called for stability and unity.

Due to its geographic, economic and geopolitical advantages, Saudi Arabia has traditionally been the major force within the GCC, especially on issues of foreign policy. However, with the economic rise of others, especially the UAE and Qatar, aspirations to have independent foreign policy grew. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been on the same page on major regional issues including Iran and terrorism, Qatar has taken a divergent view. This became more pronounced after the Arab Spring that brought Islamism as a prominent political force in many Arab countries including in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. Qatar, along with Turkey, emerged as a major supporting force behind groups like the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt that calls for Islamic republicanism. This is seen as detrimental for their interest by the Saudi and Emirati rulers, and hence, they have been at the forefront to dismantle the Muslim Brotherhood and its branches from the whole Gulf region. The divergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and Qatar on the other had become evident during the 2013 military takeover in Egypt after dismissal of the Muslim Brotherhood-backed elected president Mohammad Morsi.

On Iran’s role in the region too, there have been significant differences. Qatar does not view growing Iranian political and military presence in the Middle East as detrimental to its interests. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain see Iran as an expansionist and hegemonic power that is trying to create internal fissures within the regional countries, including in Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, to take advantage of the disturbances and expand its strategic influence. Iranian support for armed Shiite militias such as Hezbollah and Houthi militia and its military presence in Iraq and Syria are seen as examples of Iran’s expansionist ambitions. Given the history of calls for ‘exporting the Islamic revolution’ in the neighbouring Arab monarchies, Saudi Arabia and its allies are suspicious of Tehran’s intentions and wish for the Gulf monarchies to remain united in countering Iran. With Qatar’s growing ties with Iran, the other members of the GCC, except Oman and Kuwait who have preferred to maintain neutrality, feel betrayed.

For India, the continuing crisis is a challenge. Since 2014, New Delhi has been moving faster to strengthen relations with the Gulf countries with the hope to attract investments and deepen security ties to prevent spread of terrorism and radicalism. The GCC has been India’s largest economic partner in the world and is the biggest contributor in its energy security. The split in the GCC could hamper India’s growing ties with the regional bloc, as its future remains uncertain. Nonetheless, with respect to the present crisis, India maintains that it is an internal matter of the GCC States that should be resolved amicably. New Delhi hopes for fast resolution of the crisis and wishes to foster closer ties with the GCC.

Script: Dr. Mohd. Muddassir Quamar, Strategic Analyst on West Asia