Defeat Of The Brexit Deal: A Closer Look At Possibilities In Future                

The uncertainties surrounding Brexit became more pronounced with the rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit deal by 230 votes. With this development, an apprehension for the Conservative government was in store as the Labour leader Jeremy Corben tabled for a no confidence motion. It was backed by MPs from the Scottish National Party, Liberal-Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green Party. Prime Minister May’s plan of delaying the vote till January, which was initially supposed to be held last month, had undoubtedly backfired, as evident. However, the Labour motion was defeated in the Commons by a 19-vote margin of 325 to 306. The British Prime Minister had the backing of Tory rebels and the Democratic Union Party’s 10 MPs who helped her to win the motion.

The bigger question now is about the ‘manner’ and ‘timing’ of departure of the UK from the European Union. Mrs. May has offered talks with all parties to determine a way forward in the coming days to get the “widest possible views across parliament” on Brexit. Her statements reveal, in the aftermath of the results of the deal; Mrs. May appears to be quiet firm on UK leaving the EU, without compromising on her original negotiating “red lines”. A general election in UK is also ruled out as Theresa May has refused to resign, stating it is not in the national interests of the country. Meanwhile, the Labour party had said that if the motion failed to trigger an election then it will look at the possibility of supporting another referendum.

The EU, on the other hand, had been vouching that the Brexit deal remained the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal. After the announcement of the results of the vote for Brexit deal, the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had said that the risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the UK had increased, adding that it would intensify preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

The future of an orderly Brexit is thrown into question with the historical defeat of the May government in the vote for the Brexit deal. Whether another EU referendum, as majority of the Labour members want, is on the cards or not is yet to be seen. The prospects of a no deal for Britain would most likely prove to be disastrous for the British socio-political economy. The most likely possibilities over the Brexit issue would now be either extension of Article 50 leaving date which is 29 March, 2019 or Prime Minister May trying to secure a better deal with Brussels. For the first alternative to work out, the British Prime Minister must compromise on the very substance of Brexit that she originally established. The alternative seems far-fetched as Mr. Juncker had made it clear that the EU will not negotiate any further. So, it is now incumbent on the leaders of the British parliamentary parties to collectively and amicably identify a way forward to carve out a future for Britain, addressing all issues including the Irish border backstop. Amidst these uncertainties, what is definite is that whatever course of action that the world’s fifth largest economy takes up over the Brexit issue is going to configurate the well-being of the future generations.

For India, there are stable interests in the British economy, given the fact that Britain is India’s largest trading partner in the EU. The current mayhem over the Brexit issue prolongs the uncertainties for around 800 Indian companies functioning in the UK which employs 104,932 people. Moreover, it must not be forgotten that India has traditionally relied on the UK as a port of entry into the EU. The ramifications of the deliberations that the British Parliament holds for guaranteeing the security of its polity, economy and the masses and the impact that it throws on London as the financial centre is, thus, of concern to India.

Script: Dr. Sanghamitra Sarma, Strategic Analyst On European Affairs