India’s “operation Balakot” was designed to convey a strong message to Pakistan sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. The message was perhaps the sternest so far from the Indian side. It was ably done even under the threat of upsetting the nuclear deterrence-stability temporarily.
That Pakistan responded meekly with pointless strikes along the LoC was a stunt widely expected. The message from the Indian side stands solidly even after a strong counter by Indian Air Force, taking down a Pakistani F-16 aircraft; downing of an Indian plane and capture of its pilot, and his subsequent release by Pakistan.
Despite raves and rants in Pakistan and a hyper-reactive media on both sides, the government of Pakistan has chosen to de-escalate officially. The decision to hand over the Indian pilot, announced by Pakistani Prime Minister in a joint sitting of the country’s Parliament signaled a realization in Islamabad that not-dealing with home-spun terror was not an option any longer.
The open backing of India’s counter-terror pre-emptive attack by the international community against the backdrop of decision of the OIC to go ahead with the invitation to Indian External Affairs Minister as a ‘Guest of Honour’ to its summit meeting in Abu Dhabi, UAE, in the face of strong protests by Pakistan, must have weighed in heavily on Pakistan to toe a reconciliatory line. Imran Khan’s offer of dialogue with India and his exhortations, perhaps to himself, not to escalate and start a full-blown conventional war need to be understood in light of growing international condemnation of Pakistani use of terrorism as an instrument of its state policy vis-à-vis its neighbours.
It should be mentioned here, that Afghanistan has been a victim of Pakistan’s open policy of providing sanctuary to the Taliban, which is engaged in a civil war with the Kabul government. Iran had a taste of it one day before the Jaish-e-Muhammad trained terrorist struck in Pulwama, when another Jaish—Jaish-al-Adl, again allegedly raised and sheltered by Pakistan— attacked a bus carrying Iranian security forces in an identical fashion in Sistan-Baluchistan.
Subjected to media’s probing enquiries, Pakistani leaders have looked unprepared for explaining the state’s unwillingness to act against terror. Pak Foreign Minister betrayed a sense of nervousness in his interaction with a foreign broadcaster and leaked out information that Masood Azhar has been ‘quite unwell’, leading to an overactive social media revealing interesting data about Balakot terror camps and Masood’s audio-message castigating Pakistani state for having surrendered the Indian pilot tamely, when the war was still on!
It was interesting to find commentators in the Pakistani media advocating caution and pressing the government to act against groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba etc. lately, reports even started emerging that “a decisive crackdown on extremist and militant organisations in the country look imminent”, quoting Pak Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry
Although Pakistan government dismisses Indian dossier on Pulwama and wants to de-link its crackdown on terror groups from Indian operation/pressure and claims that it would rather act in its national interest, it is obvious that Islamabad is acting under international pressure. As Pak media have reported, it would help Pakistan “deal with the issues arising out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) listing” because it has come under renewed pressure at the Paris plenary in February.
That international pressure is a function of muscular counter-terror action by India against continuing Pakistani proxy-war is quite well-known. If Pakistan feels compelled to rein in Jihadi groups like it did after 9/11, it would be deemed as a success of the Indian strategy to push its response-threshold upward in the name of pre-emptive counter-terror strikes making it costlier for Pakistan to use terror as an asymmetric tool in the region.
As of now, it seems possible escalation leading to a nuclear crisis may have been averted. However, a lot will depend on the way ‘the deep state’ rolls out its post-Balakot action plan in Pakistan.
Script: Dr. Ashok Behuria, Sr. Fellow & Coordinator, South Asia Centre, IDSA